In the near future, risks and uncertainties have to be considered in the operational planning in agriculture, which are nowadays disregarded for the conventional calculation of earnings from agriculture and forestry. Therefore, the aim of this master thesis was to find a remedy by integrating the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), a risk analysis, in the budgeting of a vinery, which enabled a significant improvement of its current situation of earnings. By evaluating the contribution margin, the income from agriculture and forestry of the current situation were analyzed and four operating plans (future scenarios) for the improvement thereof were tested. So, the probability of each requested level of incomings could be displayed by the 20.000-fold simulation of earnings. Additionally to this, the diagrams of cumulative probability made it possible to verify the probability of reaching or even surpassing the selected level of incomings. The comparison of the conventional calcuation method with the simulated results showed the availability of a significant higher background of decision for the operations manager by the means of MCS. By the graphical comparison of simulated operating plans, also those plans can be chosen, depending on the adjustments of risk, which do not generate negative incomings even if they show lower average incomings. So, the best and worst case scenarios, respectively, are gaining relevance for the agricultural practice by the means of the Monte Carlo Method, whereat the theoretically possible extremal values could not be reached in their full extend. As a conclusion it can be stated that, despite of small disadvantages like increased time and calculation efford, the MCS is excellently suitable for the application in the operational planning in agriculture.